Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 3.411914 4.034006 4.724979 5.547596 6.498405 7.560943 8.836323
2025-07-20 2.493978 3.331230 4.365327 5.728026 7.467028 9.601587 12.408408
2025-07-27 1.942247 2.878212 4.142255 5.953832 8.459072 11.773019 16.454002
2025-08-03 1.512050 2.456674 3.836351 5.962307 9.110144 13.543491 20.187687
2025-08-10 1.159705 2.051148 3.449750 5.750398 9.370249 14.756900 23.256065
2025-08-17 0.889944 1.704865 3.071603 5.459241 9.429329 15.637013 25.891020
2025-08-24 0.723264 1.490345 2.856921 5.376352 9.775537 16.959223 29.307703
2025-08-31 0.598589 1.321312 2.683747 5.324062 10.145889 18.336651 32.931792
2025-09-07 0.532630 1.249897 2.671203 5.548430 11.011208 20.610932 38.250209
2025-09-14 0.457278 1.141261 2.565916 5.577353 11.517665 22.307918 42.734370
2025-09-21 0.393863 1.043584 2.463512 5.591598 11.989697 23.979494 47.318831
2025-09-28 0.337954 0.949819 2.351408 5.565465 12.372896 25.516020 51.788792
2025-10-05 0.323109 0.954945 2.461149 6.033672 13.824273 29.242986 60.748640
2025-10-12 0.291021 0.908927 2.447364 6.232160 14.748706 32.056940 68.260006
2025-10-19 0.265400 0.874095 2.453848 6.477349 15.802631 35.231047 76.764628
2025-10-26 0.231216 0.806179 2.365940 6.487016 16.340095 37.408468 83.482433
2025-11-02 0.191961 0.712045 2.191895 6.258375 16.307405 38.392542 87.856942
2025-11-09 0.156168 0.617765 1.997433 5.943934 16.029103 38.816117 91.091291
2025-11-16 0.133828 0.561168 1.896220 5.854399 16.274563 40.400175 96.922964
2025-11-23 0.115791 0.514003 1.812605 5.797905 16.592241 42.171798 103.308737
2025-11-30 0.107986 0.502431 1.834803 6.040323 17.696681 45.841502 114.196673
2025-12-07 0.095932 0.470528 1.786465 6.071568 18.254132 48.280898 122.497127
2025-12-14 0.085050 0.439794 1.735562 6.086957 18.770861 50.669089 130.871271